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Modeling of the trajectory of the level fluctuations in Lake Naroch
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Date
2016Publisher
Bogucki Wydawnictwo NaukoweCitation
Kirvel, I. Modeling of the trajectory of the level fluctuations in Lake Naroch / I. Kirvel, A. Volchak, S. Parfomuk // Quaestiones Geographicae. – 2016. – № 35 (1). – P. 57–62. – Bibliogr.: p. 62.Abstract
As a result of the conducted investigations of the level fluctuations in Lake Naroch the initial data are divided
into 3 components: a polynomial regression that makes it possible to find out an independent on time Law of
trajectory, a periodic component of sinusoidal type and a residual sequence of independent random quantities. Modeling
of the trajectory fluctuations is based on the deterministic part, consisting of the regression of the 8th order and
periodic component, and also the random part, consisting of independent equally distributed quantities. Using this
model it can be modeled the trajectory of the level fluctuations in Lake Naroch. The modeled trajectory by 200 years
long demonstrated the probability of exceeding of maximum annual level, equal 1 per cent.
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