Analysis of development and growth of the construction industry to promote improvement of quality and efficiency of the national economy of the Republic of Belarus based on the VAR model

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics and structural features of the construction sector of the Republic of Belarus, as well as its impact on the national economy for the period 2014–2023. The research aims to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the construction sector's development, identify key factors determining its functioning, and define its role in ensuring the quality and efficiency of the Belarusian national economy. To achieve this goal, the study employs a comprehensive methodological approach, including the analysis of statistical data on key indicators of the construction industry (dynamics of contract work volumes, structure and volumes of investments, number of construction organizations, housing commissioning) and econometric modeling based on a Time-Varying Vector Autoregression (TV-VAR) model. The key variables selected for modeling were the GDP of the Republic of Belarus, the volume of construction contract work, fixed capital investments allocated to construction, the share of construction investments in total investment capital, and the physical volume index of construction and installation works. The analysis of current trends revealed periods of dynamic transformations in the Belarusian construction industry, including the impact of state modernization programs and fluctuations in the sector's share of GDP. The significant role of the state as a regulator and customer was noted, as well as changes in the number of construction organizations and the volume of contract work, including capital and current repairs, at the regional level. The dynamics of investments in construction and installation works and housing commissioning were also analyzed. The research findings can be useful for forming effective investment policies, forecasting construction activity, and developing measures to enhance the industry's competitiveness.