Assessment of demand and supply of scientific and technical information in the context of forecasting technological trends

Abstract

Each year, an increasing number of countries base their innovation development strategies on forecasts of scientific and technological development. There are numerous methods for forecasting technological trends, with the STI proposal being a key indicator. This article presents an improved methodology for forecasting technological trends, which includes an analysis of not only the supply of STI but also the demand for it.In particular, it is proposed to supplement the method based on the analysis of the STI proposal with statistics on the volume of STI user requests on the Internet and in scientific and technical libraries for the necessary keywords related to the object under study.By comparing the dynamics of STI data in Belarus with current global trends, it is possible to assess the interests of the domestic scientific community in various areas of research and identify the most significant of them. Studying the dynamics, structure and territoriality of demand for STI and comparing these data with the STI supply makes it possible to assess the degree of satisfaction of needs in STI. Based onthe STI supply, specialists can draw conclusions about the possible emergence of new technologies and product groups in a certain forecast period.The results of such analysis can be used to more accurately predict technological trends.