Estimation of breaking risks of Zhinvali Earth Dam taking into consideration the “CAPRA”

Abstract

Georgia is one of the most vulnerable countries to natural disasters within South Caucasus Region. In recent years, the disaster risk has increased due to faulty land-using. Outstanding building codes lead to inadequate building construction. There is a lack of real data on natural disasters and the impact of mudflows, floods, debris flows etc. on land-use planning and prompt actions after above mentioned catastrophes. Therefore, it is important task to carry out assessments of critical structures sensitive to natural threats such as dams and reservoirs. In order to be able to improve the resistance of hydraulic engineering structures it is necessary to utilize a formal risk analysis framework, such as the Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis (CAPRA) method. The scientific article examined the creation of a framework for the condition of the earth dam and risk management using the analysis of the critical state and the risk portfolio, which was developed by Professor Billal Ayyub who represents Maryland University in USA, to examine human-caused threats, such as terrorism events, and natural hazards, such as flooding due to dam failures, with focus on potential failure modes due to deterioration. For this purpose, based on the field and theoretical studies, the regulation of hydrological (floods, debrisflows, snow avalanches), geological (erosion, mudflows), and seismic (earthquake), as well as those natural disasters formed in the water area of Zhinvali Reservoir, which determines the stability and reliability of the Zhinvali Earth Dam, is estimated using existing statistical data and theory of reliability and risk. Special attention is paid to the safety of the population living in the risk zone, as well as the development and evaluation of methods and principles of the impact of expected disasters.