Anthropogenic impacton the rivers of the Belarusian Polesie (using the Lan River as an example)

Abstract

The work is devoted to assessing changes in the water regime of the Lan River inmodern conditions and the near future with the aim of developing a strategy for the rational use of the water potential of small rivers in the Belarusian Polesie region. There was a tendencytowards an increase in annual runoff at the Loktyshi and Mokrovogauging stations during the study period from 1948 to 2015, which was caused by anthropogenic factors in the form of amelioration measures; and in the upper reaches of the river at the Lognovichi gauging station there was a slightdecrease in runoff caused by climatic influences. Testing the hypothesis about the homogeneity of the runoff series under consideration for periods with different averaging intervals has showed heterogeneity for some types of runoff. This was caused by intensive economic activity, which significantly disrupts the natural hydrological regime. A runoff forecast was made for the Lan River at the Mokrovo gauging station for the period up to 2035 based on archive of meteorological data using a multi-model ensemble of four CMIP5 scenarios. A slight decrease in runoff was predicted, caused by additional evaporation from the water surface of the reservoir due to increased air temperature, as well as a slight shift in the peak of the springflood to March.